[pritz]

Im my home games there is a person that has been ridiculously lucky for about 4 months now. He is a terrible calling station, but has seemed to outdraw people a lot of times on big hands. He, however has been wining consistently for about 4 months now in NL Hold'em. I dont see how this is possible, but he seems to get more strong hands than just about anyone, and he also outdraws people a lot.

Some example hands to show that he is not winning consistentlyu from skill:

player 1 : AK
Him: JJ

Preflop He raises and player 1 calls

Flop A K 2

He leads out, player 1 moves in and he calls.
.... you know how this hand ended.. he caught a J.

He will never fold top pair to an allin unless there is 4 to a straight or flush. He never considers things like his kicker. However he seems to never miss a straight (gutshot and open ender) or flush draw and will always chase it, sometimes even call an allin with it. He also seems to get bailed out a lot, He will call an allin with a set and someone will have a straight, but then the board will pair and give him a boat.

Anyways, he has been winning for about 4 months now and it cant be from skill. I have heard that streaks of luck like this can last for up to a year even. Is this true? Is he on that big of a rush?

[lork]

Five words: Gambling Theory And Other Topics.

This is the title of a book by Mason Malmuth. It explains, mathematically, the nature of swings. There are even calculations you can do to determine how long a losing player can win, and how long a winning player can lose.

[razor]

Is it just me or is the solution to this painfully simple?

"HE IS A TERRIBLE CALLING STATION"

so then do move in on him!!!

if there is a chance for you to get outdrawn then don't do it. Just wait till you are sure you have the best hand then move in.

like in the example you gave. why move in with the A-K 2pair if he will call later on anyways. Maybe that person would have remained in had they went to the river with him, then folded to him when HE went all in. If you don't want to get outdrawn by a calling station then don't go all in with a beatable hand...do you know why? cus he will call.

wait till you have the nuts

[chris]

O.K. Im gonna throw out an idea, but here is the disclaimer. I obviously have never played in your home game so I am only speculating. Over a 4 month period he in all likelyhood is not getting better cards than anyone else. Is it at all possible that he is outplaying you guys BUT that u guys are only remembering the hands that he hits? If he continues to win I think you should ponder this possibility even though you might think it is crazy. 4 months is a long time for a guy to be consistently winning if he is a bad player.

[johnf]

I dont see how he could be outplaying us. He has won at least 10 big pots where he was a huge dog. He has called an allin with ace high, inside straight draw.. etc. I have seen times where he doesn't get lucky but they don't seem to be often. There is no doubt in my mind that he is a horrible player. The funny thing is that he doesnt seem to make money on catching bluffs, but more on getting lucky. Like i said i have heard that that kind of luck, though unlikley, can last for up to a year.

[DeepBlue]

The thing is, he's winning, so why is he a terrible anything? He's a lucky son-of-a... that's for sure, but he's playing marginal hands as well as good hands, holding out and the cards are falling from him. Fortune favours the brave, and he must be very brave that's all I can say.

He can't win forever though, and he will come unstuck matching an all-in one day if he runs into someone with quads or the like. You've got to play the tight, premium hand-only game, then raise him till the river.